By Scott A. Kantor
The 'Decision' came down in the midst of the NBA's biggest free agency off season to date and the Miami Heat got arguably the most sought after athlete in sports history, Lebron James. In addition to signing the King, the Heat retained Dwayne Wade, and signed Chris Bosh. Los Heat had not only acquired the three best free agent's available on the market, they also did so at a discount (all three players agreeing to sign for less money than their market value in order to save money for role players). Deciding they wanted to potentially become part of history Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauska, and the always dangerous Mike Miller decided to bring their talents to South Beach as well. The media has dubbed Pat Riley a genius, and even a pimp (see Dan LeBatard's rant). But before the Heat can hoist the championship trophy they will have to make their way out of the Eastern Conference. While there is plenty of talent within the conference only a few teams look as though they could compete. That short list includes: Chicago, Orlando and Boston.
The Bulls 2010-'2011 campaign includes a young talented team with physical toughness thanks to the off season addition of power forward Carlos Boozer. With the emergence of Joakim Noah to the talents of Derrick Rose and Luol Dang the bulls have a formidable team to place on the court. However, the match-ups favor Miami. At guard Derek Rose would likely be taking on Dwayne Wade. The similarities between these two players is strong. While Wade's outside shot might have only the slightest of edges, both players have great ball handling skills, and can drive the lane with the best of them. This is a match up that favors the Heat but for arguments sake (and because I don't think it matters as you will see) let's call this a wash. At power forward the Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh match-up likely favors Bosh. Carlos Boozer's inside game is arguably better and more physical. However, in addition to having a great inside game, Bosh also possesses a good mid-range jumper making him more versatile. The Bulls could have the advantage at center however, even if not by a large margin. There are plenty of role players at the Heats disposal to put in front of Joakim Noah (Joel Anthony, Juwan Howard and Big Z) but Noah's performance has only gotten better and he has become a rebounding machine.
We're three positions down and it still seems like a tight match up, but who I ask will guard the best player on the court? That task would likely belong to Luol Deng. A high second tier player, maybe a low first tier player, averaging close to eighteen point per game and a little over seven boards. However, despite having a strong defensive game, Mr. Deng's mission is like no other because he faces the King. Lebron is faster and stronger, he really matches up well at nearly any position on the floor. Let's face it, he might be the player throughout this entire post that it will not matter who is placed in front of him -- he will emerge as the better player. Winner: Los Heat.
Orlando rolled the dice last year by allowing Hedo Turkoglu to leave and signing Vince Carter. The Magic got relatively the same production out of Carter's '09-'10 bid as they had gotten out of Hedu the year prior. The only difference was that they did not make it to the NBA Finals (arguably because of a healthier Celtics team). This year the Magic look to bounce back and despite chatter of the possibility of a trade to obtain Hornet Star Chris Paul, it appears the team remains the same. But how do they line up against the Heat? Jameer Nelson probably has the slight edge over the younger Chalmers but Wade is younger, faster and more talented than the fading Vince Carter. Chris Bosh showed what he can do against the Magic team in the playoffs in '08, averaging 24 points and 9 boards in 5 games. However Rashard Lewis was no slouch either averaging 19 points and 8.4 rebounds in those same games. The edge nonetheless goes to Miami.
The two remaining superstars Lebron James and Dwight Howard hold advantages in their respective positions. It seems likely that Dwight Howard gets his 18 points while pulling down 12 boards. What is another question is what type of play will come out of Lebron James. Many believe the King will take on more of a Magic Johnson role. Meaning, that while he will remain a threat to shoot he will place a larger emphasis on his basketball i.q. and become a guy who creates plays for his team. This could mean more points for Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, while sacrificing Lebron's sexier scoring numbers and bringing up his assists per game. Last year Lebron scored close to 30 points per game. If he loses even 10 points but creates 5 more assists to his already high 9 assists per game, he has now more than made up for his loss in production. The addition of Lebron James makes any close match up for Bosh and Wade no longer close. Any advantage held by Superman is futile.
Winner: Los Heat.
Last years Eastern Conference Champions have also been involved in some off season signings, however these moves have made the C's older not younger. Acquiring Jermaine O'Neal (age 31) and Shaq Fu (age 38) while re-signing Ray Allen (age 35) does not express a GM looking any further than one year. With an aging Kevin Garnett (age 34 but has the mobility of a 45-year old) and Paul Pierce (age 32) the Celtics biggest stars are not spring chickens. However, Beantown has a few youthful tricks up there sleeves. The NBA has recently gotten familiar with the name Rajon Rondo. He has emerged as a fearless point guard who can drive the lane at will but remains a threat to make a spectacular dish. Complimenting Rondo's passes has been "Big Baby" Glen Davis. As a presence underneath and a newly developed outside game, Glen has become a starter on any other team. Not to mention the re-signing of the always emotional midget, Nate Robinson. So, is this team with a balance of aging talent and exciting youth have what it takes to take on the biggest three names in the NBA?
The Celtics are the only team in the Eastern Conference that stands in the way of the Miami Heat going to the NBA Finals. This match up is like no other because I have major questions as to who is guarding who. The first question is, who on the Heat will be guarding Rajon Rondo. Rondo is a bigger threat than Chalmers can handle so it is likely he would be guarded by Wade. Rondo averaged 14.8 points and 10.2 assists in the 5 game playoff series against the Heat last year. While Wade averaged 33.2 points and 6.8 points in those same games. That means Rondo created 35.2 points while Wade created 46.8. It is safe to say that given the Heats star power that Wade's scoring numbers will decline but these same stars will also cause Wade's assists to rise. On the other side Rondo's scoring and assists have gone up every year for the past four years. Rondo has become a player who can change the course of game not unlike Wade did in 2006 (see NBA Champs). It is fair to say that their respective numbers will be very close -- enough to call it a wash.
If past history dictates, Paul Pierce will match up with Lebron James. In the past Paul Pierce and the Celtics dealt with King James in the same way they did with Dwayne Wade -- double team them and force the remaining scrubs to beat you which never happened. This isolation will no longer stand man, as the remaining players for the Heat have the last names Wade and Bosh rather than the fading Antawn Jamison and the overrated Mo William. Lebron James has come up short against Pierce in the past not in statistics but in wins. With a better supporting cast the statistics against the older Pierce will now have a stronger impact. The best the Celtics could hope for is in another wash, but again this match up likely favors the King of Vitamin Water even if only by a slight edge.
If Chris Bosh is up against Kevin Garnett, Bosh is likely to prevail. Bosh has a less intense style that is similar to that of an aging KG. Garnett struggled most of last year recovering from right knee problems. At times in the playoffs the 2004 MVP looked just like the dominant player that helped bring Boston a championship in 2008. While other times he looked scared to even post up. At this point in his career, and given his lingering knee problems this match up appears to favor the more youthful Bosh.
The Celtics best chance at defeating the Miami Heat falls upon the same strength that Boston has had over the past three years, their bench. Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Rashee Wallace, along with newly acquired Jermaine O'Neal and Shaquille O'Neal provide a second team for the Celtics that reflects youth and talent along with power and experience. Players like Haslem, Joel Anthony, Juwan Howard, and Carlos Arroyo do not offer an even match up. To boot, Kendrick Perkins provides a center match up likely in his favor when he returns from the disabled list. It is difficult to say that the much older Celtic team would beat the Heat but they certainly boast the best chances of doing so in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are much deeper than the Heat which makes them a threat to repeat as Eastern Conference Champs. The Heat's big three have a slight edge, but given the fact the Celtics second team will be far and away better than the Heat's, the edge goes to the Celtics.
Winner: Boston Celtics.
Dwayne Wade would likely be guarded by Ron Artest. In a recent ESPN article Artest sounds as thought he is coherent enough to actually believe he has come into his own as a top tier NBA star. I have not bought into this notion and believe that Flash would eat Artest for lunch on both ends of the floor. Artest remains a hot head as much as he would like you to believe otherwise. Wade is a cool customer who exposes the opposing player's weaknesses and over physicality (a player like Artest). The edge here goes to the Heat.
The remaining role players and starters favor more in the way of L.A. The Lake show's remaining starters Derek Fisher, a clutch shooting point guard and Andrew Bynum have support coming off the bench in sixth man Lamar Odem. These players have major advantages over Mario Chalmers, Joel Anthony, Ilgauskas, and Mike Miller. In the end the Laker's just have more threats both in their starting lineup and off their bench.
Winner: The L.A. Lakers
The Miami Heat have undoubtedly improved their team and they appear to have the biggest targets on their backs as the team to beat. But I don't believe they are the best team in the NBA. A single injury to one of the major three Heat stars and Miami is in big trouble. Both Boston and L.A. have deeper lineups than the Miami Heat both in their starting lineups and off the bench. The key for the Heat to winning it all will be the ability of their big three to stay healthy and play at a higher level as a unit. Only time will tell the story that Riley sees as historical.
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