10 Starts and Thousands of Opinions

By Joe K...no no no, too revealing...J. Kuczynski

    On Tuesday Stephen Strasburg came off of the DL for his 10th career start against the Marlins. Four and a third rocky innings later, Strasburg’s day was done after giving up six earned runs on six hits and walking two while striking out four. With his third loss of the season Strasburg’s record now stands at 5 and 3 and even with today’s struggles he still holds an ERA just over three (3.07 to be exact). And so with ten starts officially in the books now seems a good time to make some serious assessments on the twenty-one year old talent.

    A lot of powerful words have been thrown around rating Strasburg’s talent. Now I’m fine with giving him the “phenom” badge, there aren’t too many young talents with the skill set that Strasburg’s got. But in any case where a player is already written off as “the next best thing” without putting in any real time on the professional level, well that really grinds my gears. Such a rule goes for professional across the board, and that’s why seeing Sam Bradford making more money than your more established players.  Butm to get back to the Nationals future hall of famer… just kidding… getting back to Stephen Strasburg, there is NOW a significant sample size to prvode for intelligent debate on where the flame thrower (with a top 5 highest average fast ball “flame thrower” does seem warranted) might wind up in the big book of baseball lore.

    Okay, so let’s start with life before the Nationals. In his pre-MLB career Strasburg was untouchable. For his senior year at San Diego State he had an eight to one strike out to walk ratio and an ERA that wouldn’t amount to enough change for a gumball (0.63). As far as awards go, I could fill this article with more college and semi-pro awards than we all even knew existed. But while these are all enough points to cement Strasburg as one of the greatest college pitchers ever, the question remains, what exactly does this mean for this youngster's MLB career. To put it simply, it means jack. Many players who never see the college scene are plucked from high school and placed into the minors despite not being old enough to grow a sweet Wade Boggs mustache. Many players were said to be too small in college and told that they’d never make it to the show (cough Dustin Pedroia). Now not all high school talent is turned to gold, and there are a lot more career minor leaguers than MLB all stars, but the point stands that nothing is guaranteed, be it fame or failure.

    Some things from college life don’t change however. For instance, I still enjoy a cold beer, and Stephen Strasburg still throws really hard. We’re talking triple digit hard. He also has some devastating breaking balls that both buckle knees and keep batters guessing. When there’s about a twenty mile per hour difference between pitches, it makes the batters job a hell of a lot more difficult. So, between his 98 mile per hour fastball, a ridiculous change up, and a deep hooking curve, no one is saying that he doesn't have the stuff.  However, as we have seen, "stuff" doesn't always translate into major league success (see Kerry Wood's career -- young starting phenom marked as the next big thing, through injury and failure has struggled to work as a set up man).  Stamina and nerves are not found on the back of your old Upper Deck baseball cards, yet these tools are so very crucial in a sport that’s ninety percent mental, and thirty percent physical…wait…what?

    What I want to do, as crazy as it is sounds, is use in-game performance solely to hit on the strengths and weaknesses of the power righty. For the most basic pitching stats, we have a very respectable 3.07 ERA, averaging a hair under eight strikeouts a start against 17 walks. That eight to one college strike out to walk ratio has gone down to five to one, yet he’s still striking out just over a third of the batters he faces (almost twice as many strike outs averaged by the rest of the league). Strasburg still attacks the batters hurling about 66% of his pitches for strikes, about 3 points above the league average. Strasburg clearly has the ability to paint the strike zone, but he still has to build his confidence and get used to the pressure.

    Before Tuesday’s game, every batter that Strasburg has faced in a 3-0 count has forced a walk. Granted, that’s only three batters, but most power pitchers can come back to work the count a little more in their favor. Opponents are only batting .216 against Strasburg but with runners on this number jumps to .296. Should that runner be in scoring position with two outs, the average is a favorable .333 for the hitter; a clear sign that Strasburg still needs to adjust under the big lights.  Depending on how you value wins and loses for a pitcher, five wins in ten starts may seem pretty mediocre. This is where we have to remind ourselves that the Nationals aren’t exactly a dominating franchise. A combination of shaky defense and poor run support should be taken into account. In Strasburg’s first two losses the Natty's supported their ace with a grand total of zero runs (I’ve scored that many runs in the pros). This leads me to believe that wins and loses are a poor stat to use in evaluating a pitchers performance. Wins and losses are just as much a team stat as it is a pitching stat. The best pitchers don’t always win twenty games a year, just ask Zack Greinke.

    So, lets see what we have learned today. Strasburg has the talent and the pitches to be an all star, but not this year (crazy to think he was almost an all star this year with only seven starts, ridiculous). Understandably he’s going through growing pains while adjusting to big league bats. But weighing the pros and cons, Strasburg is still an exciting prospect to watch with a lot of promise. I’m not ready to build his plaque for Cooperstown just yet, but it should be interesting to watch Strasburg develop. No one here is trying to discredit a growing ball player, just trying to observe all angles and bring a little realism to an otherwise over hyped media machine. For a rookie, he is well on his way but to call a pitcher great it has to be based on a body of work filled with clutch performances, playoff success, and overall dominance. Right now, no matter what we think Strasburg’s final body of work will look like, only one thing is absolute. We’re still just guessing.